Changes in technology are happening at a hitherto unprecedented and unimaginable scale and will cause disruption in industry after industry. This has really begun to worry me because we are not ready for this change and most of our leading companies won’t exist 15-20 years from now. Here are five sectors to monitor closely.
Manufacturing. Robotics and 3-D printing have made it cheaper to manufacture in the US and Europe than in China. Robots such as Baxter from Rethink Robotics, and UR10 from Universal Robots, have arms and screens which show you their emotions, and sensors that detect what’s happening around them. The cost of operating them is less than the cost of human labour. We can now have robots working 24×7 and doing some of the work of humans. Over time, these robots will become ever more multifaceted, and able to do most human jobs. The manufacturing industry is certain to be disrupted in a very big way. This is good news for America, Europe, and parts of Asia experiencing labour shortages. But it will adversely affect the Chinese economy hugely dependent on manufacturing jobs.
In the next decade, robots will most likely go on strike, because we won’t need them anymore. They will be replaced by 3D printers. Within 15-20 years, we will even be able to do away with 3D print electronics. Imagine being able to design your own iPhone and print it at home. This will become possible.
Reinvention of finance. We are already witnessing a controversy over Bitcoin — the new software-based online payment system. Many technology and retail companies are supporting it. Crowdfunding is shaking up the venture-capital industry and making it less relevant because it provides start-ups with an alternative for raising seed capital. We will soon be able to crowdfund loans for houses, cars, and other goods. Moreover, with cardless transactions for purchasing goods, we won’t need the type of physical banks and financial institutions we have presently.
Healthcare. Apple recently announced Healthkit, its new platform for health information. It will store data from the wearable sensors which will soon be monitoring our blood pressure, blood oxygenation, heart rhythms, temperature, activity levels, and other symptoms. Google, Microsoft, and Samsung will surely not be left behind and will compete to provide their health-data platforms. With this data, they will be able to warn us when we are about to fall sick even as artificial intelligence-driven computers will advise us on what we need to do to become healthy. Indeed we won’t need doctors for day-to-day medical advice. Robotic surgeons will also perform the most sophisticated surgeries. A massive disruption of the entire healthcare system is on the cards.
Energy industry. Five years ago, Americans were worried about running out of oil; today we’re talking about Saudi America — thanks to the fracking revolution. Admittedly, fracking is a harmful technology; nevertheless it has enabled America to become energy independent and will soon transform the US into an energy exporter. Then there is solar energy which some people have become negative about. But the fact is that solar prices have dropped 97 percent over the past 35 years, and, at the rate at which solar technology is advancing, by the end of this decade the US will achieve grid parity across the country, which will make it cheaper to produce energy at home on your solar cells than to buy it from utilities. Another 10-20 years ahead it will cost a fraction as much to produce your own energy as to buy it from the grid. This means the utility companies will be in serious trouble.
When we have unlimited energy, we can have unlimited clean water, because we can simply boil as much ocean water as we want. We will be able to grow food locally in vertical farms which can be 100 percent organic, because we won’t need insecticides in sealed farm buildings. Imagine also being able to 3D print meat without having to slaughter animals! This will transform and disrupt agriculture and the entire food-production industry.
Communications. Yes, even this industry will be disrupted. Note how AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint have seen their landline businesses disappear, replaced by mobile phones, now being replaced by data. When I travel abroad, I don’t make long-distance calls any more, because I just call over Skype. Soon, we will have wifi everywhere, thanks to competition between companies such as AT&T and Google to provide superfast internet access. We will be able to make free calls over open wifi networks.
In almost every industry, a major disruption is imminent and the world will be very different 15-20 years from now. The vast majority of companies which are currently leaders in their industries are unlikely even to exist. That is because corporate executives are either not aware of the coming changes or they are reluctant to invest the type of money required to reinvent themselves, or are protecting legacy businesses. Most are focused on short-term performance.
New trillion dollar industries will emerge from nowhere and wipe out existing trillion dollar industries. That’s the future we’re headed into, for better or worse.
(Vivek Wadhwa is director of research at Duke University’s Pratt School of Engineering and vice-president of academics, Singularity University)